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WOULD THE CYPRUS ISSUE TURN INTO A TIME BOMB THREATENING TO EXPLODE IN THE MIDDLE EAST REGION?Al Ahram, 10 December 2001 by Dr. Hassan Abo Taleb & Magdi Al Hossesini

The Cyprus issue, during the coming few months will come to a new crossroad as the EU will become the main party to this conflict by announcing its expected approval for the membership of Cyprus to the Union during its next summit to be held late next year in Copenhagen. This matter signals a hot confrontation between Turkey and the EU. The problem might turn into a bomb or mine ready to explode at any moment in eastern Mediterranean that would have serious regional consequences. Furthermore, it might even strike the Arab region.

In the context of studying the consequences of the current developments on the Turkish Cypriot side, Al Ahram has started this visit to the northern part of the Cypriot island or what is called the “Turkish Republic of Northen Cyprus”, to find out the thoughts of high officials there and also to learn their expectations about the coming steps to be taken, especially after the Denktaþ-Klerides meeting, the first one between the two since four years.

An Independent Republic

The first words we accidentally heard from a Cypriot citizen, upon our arrival in the Ercan Airport was “This is a respectable Republic and deserves to survive”. These words drew our attention to the feeling prevailing among the Turkish Cypriots and their intense eagerness for the survival of their Republic which deserves every sacrifice to be recognized by the world. This republic provides them with security and stability instead of oppression and genocide carried out during the period between 1963 and 1974 by a terrorist group called “EOKA” that had relations with Greek military leaders.

The Turkish Cypriots usually refer to this period to justify their declaration of independence. Despite the fact that they are living on the 30% of the Island, which is the northern part, they have fewer resources than the southern part, known as the Republic of Cyprus. The Turkish Cypriots also refer to the said period to justify the Turkish military existence dating back to 1974 and call it “peace operation”. 

The Turkish forces on the Island consist of 30.000 soldiers spread in remote sites on the mountains. This existence indicates the degree of commitment by Turkey towards the Turkish Cypriots and their ambition for independence.

Despite the fact that the Turkish Cyriots have unilaterally declared 18 years ago what they call the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus and elected Rauf Denktaþ, they did not yet obtain the legal recognition by the world. Turkey is the only country that recognizes them. It has also some relations with Britain that has two military bases in the northern part of the Island as well as commercial and cultural relations with Pakistan and Abu Dhabi. The lack of international recognition worries the Turkish Cypriot officials who consider it- as was confirmed by President Denktaþ- a full embargo imposed on the Republic, on the Turkish Cypriot people and their rights granted by international resolutions.

As stated by Denktaþ, this embargo – mostly caused by the roles played by Greece and the USA – will not prevent the efforts and political struggle in pursuit of confirming the existence of the Republic as well as possessing all legal aspects in this respect at the international arena. He also pointed out that their proposal for settling the Cyprus issue aims at ending the independence of Turkish Cypriots, which means the return of Greeks to the north and driving Turkish Cypriots off the Island. “This is something which will not be allowed by Turkey nor by us”. He also confirmed that “The settlement, from our point of view, is to be based on the establishment of a new partnership between the two equal and independent sides and this is what the Greek Cypriots of the South refuse.”

Elements Of The State

Talking about the existence of a Republic or an independent State requires the acknowledgement of its legal elements and its means of viability. Derviþ Eroðlu, the Prime Minister of the Republic and the Head of the National Unity Party, argues that his country has all the elements of a state that is entitled to be recognized by the world. Among these elements are the land, the people, and the democratic institutions in addition to the army and security forces.

Furthermore, there are resources such as the revenues from tourism, agriculture and animal stocks, not to mention the prominent educational institutions that attract students from all over the world by their good educational reputation. It is worth to mention that there are five main universities in the Turkish Cypriot side that attract a large number of students from different Arab and Islamic countries, by their high educational level, diversity and reasonable fees and above all the available stable atmosphere and the moderately conservative society.

The Turkish Cypriot officials admit that the general economic situation is not good and does not serve their expectations, as the income per capita does not exceed 5.000 US$, whereas this is 20.000 US$ in the southern part known as the Republic of Cyprus. Prime Minister Eroðlu attributes this difference to the embargo imposed on his country while the Greek Cypriot Government attracts all aid and international assistance.

According to the statistics of the “State Planning Authority”, due to the reduction in domestic sources, the stability of the balance in the budget depends on receiving of aid and loans. The gross national product inreased from US$323 million to US$403 million and than to US$455 million in 1997, 1998 and 1999 consecutively. The loans obtained were US$22.5 million, US$29.6 million and US$66.6 million during these years. As for the foreign aid, it has consequently increased during the same three years from US$110 million to US$164 million then to US$187 million. The balance of trade shows continuous deficit as it increased from US$299 million in 1997 to US$377 million in 1998 to US$360 million in 1999.

As the economy in Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus depends, basically, on the motherland Turkey, the picture of the direct and indirect economic subsidization provided by Turkey is clear. Moreover, there is the UN report concerning the Cyprus issue, which describes the situation in the Northern part of the Island as a “secondary domestic department”, a description that refers, indirectly, to the strong bonds between the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus and the Turkish Republic.

Constitutional Features

According to the constitution declared in 1985, after a public referendum, the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus is a secular democratic republic, which has a multi-party system based on social justice with the objective of protecting human rights, law, peace and prosperity of individuals and society. This constitution has more articles concerning freedom than the constitution declared in November 1983, which has been in effect for less than two years.

Electoral System

The electoral system applied in the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus is similar to the one in Luxemburg and Belgium. It depends on the “barrage” system, as the Party should obtain 5% of the total votes in order to have the right to join the parliament. Through the last 18 years, 6 public elections and 5 presidential elections were held. Besides, local elections are being held every four years in order to select the local authorities in cities, villages and districts.

In Northern Cyprus there are 11 political parties, only four of which are represented in the parliament. These parties are: “Social Liberation Party, founded in 1976, headed by Hüseyin Angolemli”, “Democratic Party, founded in 1992, headed by Salih Coþar”, “Republican Turkish Party, founded in 1970, headed by Mehmet Ali Talat” and “National Unity Party, founded in 1975, headed by Derviþ Eroðlu”. The other seven parties, although not in the parliament, are politically and socially active.

The Dilemma Of Membership

The continuous pursuit of independence and international recognition could lead to either of the following two conclusions. The island could remain divided forever or (in case of independence) the political geography of the region could be subject to radical changes. However, the strength of Greek Cypriots’ political and legal stance stems from the international resolutions issued by the Security Council as well as from the international recognition. The Greek Cypriots also depend on the support given by Greece and the US Administration. All these factors justify their actions and explain why they are keen on putting more pressure on their northern neighbors to give up their dream of independence. Applying to join the European Union is considered as one of the steps that may have contradictive results. The Greek Cypriots and the Greeks believe that obtaining the EU membership will lead – one way or another – to the settlement of the Cyprus issue, whereas the Turkish Cypriots believe that in case of the membership, the issue will be more complicated. According to Ambassador Osman Ertuð of the Foreign Ministry of the TRNC, the membership of the Cypriot Republic in the southern part of the island to the EU has many risks. In his opinion, if the EU takes this decision, it will lead to a European confrontation with Turkey, which in return will resort to intensifying cooperation with the TRNC. Turkey can either get closer to the TRNC or annex it. In either case, it will cause political, legal and geographical consequences.

President Denktaþ confirms that the Turkish Cypriots could not join the Greek Cypriots in applying to join the EU. He furthermore indicates that without taking into consideration the Turkish Cypriots’ cause and their independence, the acceptance of Cyprus to the Union will be a grave legal and political violation as it precedes the settlement of the issue. Therefore, the issue will be more complicated. According to Denktaþ, the most appropriate way is to start by settling the Cyprus issue based on a confederal system and then to study the membership to the EU with the full participation of all Cypriots. He says the Turkish Cypriots should not be treated as an insignificant minority.

Scenario Of Events

The question for the moment is about the expected scenario for the development of events in the light of strong expectations that confirm that the Greek Cyprus – as it is called by the Turks – is on top of the countries expected to join the EU, especially as it fulfilled, at least, the economic criteria, even in a better way than some old EU members. And therefore, Greece is ready to use its VETO right against the aceptance of any other country to join the EU if Cyprus is not included.

In this regard, the observers expect that the coming EU Summit, which will be held in Copenhagen in December 2002, will issue a decision concerning the entry of Cyprus into the Union. However, if the Cyprus issue is not settled by that time, this will cause the explosion of the Cypriot conflict as Greece and Cyprus will present, directly on the following day of this decision, a request to the EU for liberating a part of the European Union the north of Cyprus Island.

On the other hand, according to the expectations of the Egyptian Ambassador in Ankara, Fathi El Shazly, the situation may result in the Turkish side’s seeking to establish an extremely strong bond with the northern part that may reach to the extent of annexing the TRNC by Turkey, as the notion has openly been expressed by the Turkish Foreign Minister Ismail Cem. Consequently, the development will lead to a condition that will worry all the Turkish political elites, as Turkey will find itself in confrontation with the EU.

A Time Bomb Ready To Explode

The observers confirm that if the coming meeting of the two leaders (of the TRNC and Cyprus Republic), which will be held in a neutral territory in Nicosia does not end-up with the settlement of the issue, things will worsen, especially as the report concerning the Turkish economic performance reveals a very bad situation regarding the lack of progress for fulfilling the Copenhagen criteria.

Therefore, if the current situation continues, it will lead to the elimination of Turkey from the list of countries to be accepted to the EU in 2002.. Therefore, the Cyprus issue could turn into a time bomb that oculd explode at any time in the Mediterranean.

The Egyptian Ambassador in Ankara believes that the only way to defuse the time bomb of the Cyprus issue could be achieved through the EU’s coming to a decision for accepting the entry of both Cyprus and Turkey as this will guarantee to contain the issue within the EU, as is the case between Britain and Spain concerning the Gibraltar issue.

However, if the EU does not decide to accept Turkey, which is verly likely, so far, the Cyprus issue will enter a new phase that would have regional consequences, which could harm the Arab region.